Prediction Market Glossar 2026: Die wichtigsten Begriffe erklärt
Prediction Market Trading operates within a specialised vocabulary drawing from finance, statistical analysis, and distributed ledger systems. This comprehensive glossar outlines the 30 essential terms that German-speaking market participants should understand.
Kernbegriffe des Handels
- Ask (Briefkurs)
- The minimum price at which a seller will offer shares for purchase. When executing a market buy, you pay this asking price.
- Bid (Geldkurs)
- The maximum price a buyer is willing to offer for shares. When selling at market rates, you receive the bid price.
- Bid-Ask-Spread
- The gap separating ask from bid quotations. Tighter spreads indicate greater market depth and reduced transaction friction.
- CLOB (Zentrales Limitorder-Buch)
- The order-matching infrastructure powering Polymarket and PolyGram. Executes pending buy and sell orders according to price level and temporal sequence.
- Handelsauflösung (Resolution)
- The point at which a market receives its outcome determination and winning positions receive their payouts.
- Limit Order
- An instruction to transact at a specified price threshold or more favourably. The order remains active until filled or cancelled.
- Market Order
- An immediate execution instruction at the prevailing best available rate. Fills instantly but at the current market valuation.
- Slippage
- The variance between anticipated execution price and actual fill price, typically arising from insufficient order-book depth.
Wahrscheinlichkeits- und Statistikbegriffe
- Brier Score
- A calibration metric for forecast precision. Lower values indicate superior performance. Computed as the mean squared deviation between probability estimates and actual outcomes.
- Kalibrierung
- The alignment between your probability assessments and observed frequencies. Properly calibrated forecasters see their 70% predictions materialise approximately 70% of the time.
- Kelly-Kriterium
- The mathematical framework for determining optimal stake allocation: f = (bp - q) / b, where b represents net odds, p denotes probability, and q equals 1-p.
- Erwartungswert (EV)
- The probability-weighted average outcome across all possible scenarios. Positive EV positions generate profits over extended trading periods.
Blockchain- und Abwicklungsbegriffe
- Polygon
- The Layer-2 distributed ledger supporting Polymarket and PolyGram operations. Provides sub-cent transaction costs with approximately 2-second settlement finality.
- USDC (USD Coin)
- The stablecoin standard for Prediction Market settlements. Maintains 1:1 parity with the US dollar, issued by Circle and backed by US Treasury securities.
- Smart Contract
- Self-executing blockchain code that custodies Prediction Market funds and automatically distributes payouts following market resolution events.
- Oracle (Preisorakel)
- An authoritative information feed that communicates real-world outcomes to smart contracts. Polymarket employs UMA's optimistic oracle infrastructure.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Was bedeutet "Markt aufgelöst JA"?
- The underlying event has occurred. YES positions yield 1 $ per share. NO positions yield 0 $. Settlement executes automatically through smart contract mechanisms.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen Prediction Market und Futures?
- Futures contracts maintain continuous pricing tied to underlying assets. Prediction Markets feature binary payoff structures—either 0 $ or 1 $—determined by event outcomes.
- Wo kann ich mehr Prediction Market Begriffe lernen?
- PolyGrams platform documentation provides detailed technical definitions. Polymarket's English-language glossary serves as an additional reference resource.