When will GPT-5.6 be released?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI’s next named public model release is being priced as a near-term event, but the contract still sits at **0% YES** in the market, which is a stark mismatch with the wider chatter around a late-June launch. Recent reporting says chief scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” over GPT-5.5, with The Information saying it is due this month, while OpenAI’s own release notes still only show GPT-5.5 Instant updates rather than a GPT-5.6 launch.[1][8]

The comparison case is the fast 5.x cadence that followed GPT-5.1 and GPT-5.2, then GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.5 in April, which suggests OpenAI has been iterating in shorter cycles than earlier flagship generations.[1][3] Against that backdrop, a June 22-28 window looks consistent with the current public narrative, yet the market’s 0% read implies either sparse liquidity, an unresolved wording dispute, or traders treating the named-release condition as stricter than the rumoured rollout path.[2][5] Analytically, this is closer to a “when” bet on a specific label than a generic product refresh, so timing and naming both matter.

The main catalysts are simple: an OpenAI newsroom post, model release notes, or a visible ChatGPT/API rollout that explicitly uses the GPT-5.6 name.[2][8] Traders should also watch for Codex or API index changes, because leak reporting says a GPT-5.6 identifier has already appeared in backend routing logs before any formal announcement.[1][5] Cross-platform comparison is therefore straightforward: the reported prediction-market chatter elsewhere points to an 80-89% chance of a June release, while this contract’s 0% YES leaves a large gap versus both headline speculation and the reported analyst view.[1][5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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