Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The question centres on whether at least one commercial or operational aircraft will achieve takeoff from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Tehran's primary international hub, by 30 June 2026. The resolution requires actual wheel-lift as recorded by FlightAware or equivalent aviation tracking data, not merely gate pushback or airport reopening announcements. IKA has historically operated as Iran's main international gateway since opening in 2004, handling roughly 10 million passengers annually before recent disruptions.

The 100% implied probability reflects the airport's operational status as of late 2024. IKA has weathered previous closures—including temporary shutdowns following the January 2020 Ukrainian International Airlines incident and periodic maintenance windows—yet consistently resumed scheduled operations within weeks to months. The settlement window extends eighteen months, providing substantial runway for normal operations to resume even after extended disruptions. Comparable Middle Eastern airports (Baghdad, Damascus) have restarted international flights following far longer outages, suggesting technical and logistical precedent for recovery within this timeframe.

Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation regarding sanctions relief, aircraft availability, and scheduled route resumptions. Recent reporting from Reuters and aviation trade publications indicates ongoing negotiations affecting Iranian carrier operations and fuel access. The critical catalyst remains whether international carriers resume Tehran routes; even a single departure by a domestic carrier or cargo operator would satisfy resolution criteria. Any material change in US or EU sanctions regimes, or confirmation of sustained aircraft groundings, would represent meaningful downside risk to the current consensus.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.