Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A March 2026 data breach exposed Anthropic's internal development of "Claude Mythos," a model the company subsequently confirmed is undergoing early access testing with claimed advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity capabilities. The leak forced public acknowledgement of work that would otherwise have remained confidential until formal release, establishing a clear reference point for what constitutes the model in question. Settlement hinges on whether Anthropic releases this specific model or explicitly confirms a released product matches the leaked specifications before 30 April 2026.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine temporal constraint rather than scepticism about eventual release. Anthropic's historical cadence shows multi-month gaps between capability announcements and public availability—Claude 3 family models were announced in March 2024 but staged releases extended through May. The company has not committed to a Mythos release date following the leak, and early access testing typically precedes wider availability by weeks or months. Cross-platform comparison shows limited trading volume on this contract, suggesting market participants view the April deadline as implausibly tight for a full release cycle.

Key catalysts include any official Anthropic announcement specifying a Mythos release timeline, statements from the company clarifying whether leaked specifications match a product intended for 2026 release, or surprise availability through existing Claude product channels. Traders should monitor Anthropic's developer communications and earnings calls for release guidance. The contract's resolution depends entirely on Anthropic's disclosure and release decisions rather than technical feasibility, making official statements the primary information source.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.