What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil is trading in the mid-to-high $70s, so this contract is really about whether August 2026 prints a new month-high rather than whether the benchmark stays near current spot. The crowd-implied 1% YES on this market looks far lower than the broader platform pricing on specific strike-style outcomes: one data set shows around 83.5% for \( \$80 \) and 73% for \( \$75 \), while another notes roughly 61.5% for touching both \( \$70 \) and \( \$80 \), which points to disagreement over how wide the month’s trading range will be.[2][1] That is also notably tighter than sell-side-style forecasts: J.P. Morgan expects Brent to average \( \$86 \) in Q3 2026, but the EIA’s latest STEO remains the key public baseline for U.S. supply-demand assumptions.[4][5]

Historically, August WTI trading is often driven by inventory data, refinery runs, OPEC+ policy and geopolitics, so short-dated price-hit markets can move fast if any of those inputs reprice.[5] Current commentary from Polymarket links the recent slide into the \( \$77\text{–}78 \) area to easing Strait of Hormuz tensions, after earlier spikes above \( \$90 \) when disruption risk was higher, which is a useful reminder that the contract can resolve on an intramonth wick rather than the average price.[11] Traders should watch the EIA’s weekly petroleum status reports, any OPEC+ production guidance, and further diplomacy around Middle East supply routes, because those are the most direct catalysts for a one-month touch event.[5][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.