Bitcoin price on June 2?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 2 June 2026 will determine this market's outcome, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The 9% implied probability suggests the crowd assigns low odds to the YES resolution, indicating either a narrow target range or substantial uncertainty about Bitcoin's trajectory across an 18-month horizon. Cross-platform comparison reveals modest divergence: major sportsbooks have largely withdrawn from crypto-price prediction, whilst on-chain analysts and institutional desks typically express directional views rather than point-estimate probabilities, making direct odds comparison difficult.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for Bitcoin price prediction at 18-month horizons. Between 2020 and 2024, Bitcoin's annualised volatility ranged from 45% to 75%, and price movements of ±30% within six-month windows occurred repeatedly. The 2021 bull run saw Bitcoin move from £29,000 to £64,000 in nine months; the 2022 bear market compressed it from £40,000 to £16,000 over similar timeframes. Such volatility suggests that pinpointing a specific noon-hour price two years hence carries inherent difficulty, which the low probability reflects.

Near-term catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions through 2025–2026, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk-on sentiment has strengthened since 2023, making macroeconomic data releases and central bank communications material to longer-dated price forecasts. Spot exchange-traded fund flows and mining difficulty adjustments will also influence medium-term price dynamics.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.