Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The resolution mechanism relies on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp, with ties resolving to the higher bracket. Settlement occurs after the close of the US trading day on that date.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to price a specific intraday price point nearly eighteen months forward. Historical precedent suggests such distant, granular price predictions attract minimal liquidity until the settlement window narrows substantially. Comparable Bitcoin spot-price markets on shorter timeframes typically see meaningful probability shifts only within two to four weeks of expiration, as traders gain confidence in near-term volatility estimates. The absence of any YES probability here indicates either genuine uncertainty about whether the market will attract sufficient participation or consensus that the resolution criteria—pinpointing a single minute's close on a particular day—presents insurmountable forecasting difficulty.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendars, Federal Reserve policy signals, and major cryptocurrency regulatory announcements, all of which historically drive Bitcoin volatility. The 2026 timeframe encompasses potential shifts in US monetary policy and possible legislative developments affecting digital assets. Binance platform stability and any changes to its data-reporting infrastructure could also affect settlement reliability. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal activity on equivalent contracts across other major prediction markets, suggesting the broader forecasting community has similarly deprioritised such distant, precise price predictions.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.