Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House on 17 July 2025 with bipartisan backing but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where a competing discussion draft of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act has emerged [3][4]. Current crowd-implied odds of 37% YES reflect this legislative friction, sitting notably below the 55–60% consensus many crypto-policy analysts assigned shortly after the House vote, while sportsbooks have not yet priced a specific line on this bill, creating a divergence between prediction-market sentiment and traditional betting markets [3][4].

Historically, US crypto bills that clear the House but face Senate competition often stall or require significant amendment; the GENIUS Act, passed alongside CLARITY in July 2025, succeeded only after Senate leadership prioritised it over rival frameworks [3][4]. Comparable cases like the 2022 Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) also passed the House but lingered in the Senate for over a year before gaining traction, suggesting that a 2026 signing date is ambitious unless Senate Banking Committee leadership shifts focus from the RFIA draft to H.R.3633 [3].

Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for a vote on H.R.3633, any joint statements from Committee Chair Cynthia Lummis or key members, and whether the RFIA draft is withdrawn or merged with CLARITY [4]. A recent Morgan Lewis report notes that the Act mandates SEC–CFTC joint rulemaking and issuer disclosures, making regulatory alignment a key catalyst for final passage [2]. Absent a clear Senate vote before late 2026, the probability of signing by the deadline will likely remain suppressed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.