Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether Credible Finance’s curated public sale on MetaDAO surpasses its specified commitment threshold before the 31 August 2026 deadline. Institutional soft commits already total $2.315m, with the sale launching 13 July 2026 on Solana, and the resolution hinges solely on the “committed” figure displayed on the official MetaDAO fundraise page, regardless of later refunds[1][8].

Historically, MetaDAO’s on-chain fundraising has shown strong momentum: seven ICOs raised $17.6m with over $290m in total commitments by November 2025, while eight ICOs have collectively raised $25.6m as of later reports[5][7]. This track record of high commitment totals relative to raised amounts supports the 99% YES crowd-implied probability, as the platform’s “unruggable ICOs” model has consistently attracted institutional capital without major failures[5].

Traders should monitor Credible’s live commitment dashboard for any upward jumps toward the threshold, alongside MetaDAO’s broader fundraising schedule and any announcements from institutional backers like Paradigm, which recently invested $2.2m in MetaDAO amid a prediction-market boom[4]. The sale’s success also depends on Solana network stability and MetaDAO’s ability to process volume, given its prior $700m+ in processed transactions[8]. No meaningful divergence exists between sportsbook lines and this contract, as it is a crypto-specific fundraising event with no parallel in traditional sports betting.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.