What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 11 August 2026 remains entirely open, with no consensus emerging across major prediction markets, sportsbooks, or institutional forecasts. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than conviction that the event cannot occur—a distinction critical for traders evaluating whether the market has misprice tail outcomes. With settlement occurring on 12 August, the window captures a single calendar day's trading activity, making the contract sensitive to intraday volatility and regional market hours rather than longer-term directional bets.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show daily swings of 5–15% during ordinary market conditions, widening to 20%+ during periods of regulatory announcement or macroeconomic stress. The August 2021 rally to $49,000 and subsequent December 2021 peak near $69,000 both occurred within single-day windows, demonstrating that substantial price discovery can happen rapidly. Comparable single-day settlement contracts on crypto exchanges have typically attracted liquidity only when tied to specific catalyst events—FOMC decisions, exchange listings, or regulatory rulings—rather than arbitrary calendar dates.

Traders should monitor mid-July 2026 developments in US monetary policy, any scheduled cryptocurrency regulation announcements, and Bitcoin's spot price relative to major technical levels. Recent precedent suggests that absence of a scheduled catalyst typically depresses trading interest in fixed-date price contracts. The settlement window's placement in summer months historically sees lower institutional trading volumes, which may explain the current flat probability distribution across prediction markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.