What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 June 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across global exchanges. The 1% crowd-implied probability suggests traders assess a near-zero likelihood of the contract settling YES, implying either an extremely narrow price target or a settlement mechanism tied to a specific exchange's closing price at a precise moment. Without the explicit price threshold disclosed in the market description, the low probability reflects either a very high or very low price level that sits far outside consensus forecasts for mid-2026.

Historical Bitcoin volatility offers context for reading this probability. Bitcoin has experienced single-day swings exceeding 10% during bull and bear cycles, yet moves of 20% or more in a single day occur roughly 2–3 times per year on average. The 18-month window to June 2026 provides ample time for macro catalysts—Federal Reserve policy shifts, major institutional adoption announcements, or regulatory changes in the US or EU—to drive price discovery. Comparable single-event prediction markets on Bitcoin price levels have typically shown sub-5% probabilities only when targets sit in the extreme tails of distribution models.

Traders monitoring this contract should track scheduled events including US inflation data releases, potential Bitcoin spot ETF flows, and any congressional testimony on digital assets. Recent volatility has centred on macroeconomic uncertainty and central bank signalling rather than Bitcoin-specific news. The settlement window closes on 14 June 2026, meaning the final 24 hours will capture any last-minute market moves. Cross-platform comparison with perpetual futures on major exchanges will reveal whether the 1% probability reflects genuine consensus or a liquidity-driven mispricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.