Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
Bitcoin has been trading in the high-$70,000s, and this contract pays out on the first price band reached during 18–24 May. The live market is effectively pricing a very narrow range: the crowd-implied probability shown for YES is 0%, while the contract’s ladder still places most weight around the upper-$70,000s to low-$80,000s. That leaves a notable gap with some external price forecasts, which cluster around the high-$70,000s to low-$80,000s rather than the next upside bands. Fortune put spot Bitcoin at $77,347.59 on 18 May, while 24/7 Wall St. said May trading is likely to stay between $75,000 and $85,000, with $82,228 the key 200-day moving-average level.
For traders, the main watchpoints are whether Bitcoin can clear the old resistance near $80,000 and whether it tests the mid-$80,000s before the market window closes at 04:00 UTC on 25 May. 24/7 Wall St. argues a weekly close above $82,228 would be the first strong trend-reversal signal since the February slide, while Changelly’s short-term forecast pegs BTC around $80,600–$80,700 over 21–22 May. Robinhood’s parallel event for Bitcoin at 7pm EDT on 18 May uses CF Benchmarks’ real-time index, underlining that these contracts can diverge sharply depending on the exact timestamp and price source.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →