What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin has been holding in the high-$70,000s ahead of this settlement, which leaves the listed ranges mostly out of reach unless there is a sharp late move. Polymarket’s contract is currently pinned at 100% for $76,000-$78,000 on the separate May 20 price market, while this market’s crowd-implied probability still shows 0% YES, a sign that traders have not priced in the exact strike outcome as likely. That is notably more cautious than some published forecasts: Binance’s model points to about $77,248 on 20 May, and Kraken and Changelly both cluster around $77,000-$81,000 for late May, broadly consistent with a stable-but-not-explosive tape.

The main catalysts are macro rather than crypto-specific. Bitcoin remains below the 200-day moving average cited at roughly $82,228 in recent commentary from 24/7 Wall St., so the market is still treating that level as the key trend filter. On the event side, traders are watching for any fresh flow from Strategy’s earnings update and Michael Saylor’s remarks on whether weekly buying continues, as that has been framed as a possible support factor for spot demand. With settlement using a real-time index close to the deadline, the last hour matters most: any move through $80,000 would pull the contract towards the neighbouring buckets, while a flat session leaves the current range intact.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.