What price will Bitcoin hit on May 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price is being measured at the settlement time, and this contract resolves against the CF Benchmarks real-time index, not a spot quote from a single exchange. The market is currently pricing 0% for YES, which stands out against retail-style reference points: Robinhood’s related line has the $78,000-or-above threshold at 99¢, while Polymarket’s monthly highs market is already pushing to far higher levels, with $105k and $110k effectively fully priced. Analyst-style forecasts are also clustered much higher than the current settlement line, with Changelly’s near-term model pointing to roughly $81,234 by 23 May and a May range topping out near $84,138.

For context, Bitcoin has spent the past several months chopping below key technical levels, including repeated failures around the 200-day moving average near $82,228 and the $80,000 area. That makes the current contract highly sensitive to whether price can hold above the upper-$70,000s into the final hours before expiry. 24/7 Wall St. notes that a daily close above $80,000 would be the first clean trend-reversal signal in months, but also says May has largely been a $75,000–$85,000 range trade. The main catalysts are the US session close, any late macro move in dollar yields, and whether BTC can sustain levels above the CF Benchmarks reference during the final minute before the 04:00 UTC settlement cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.