Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Best Prediction Markets Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Best Prediction Markets → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Best Prediction Markets → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Best Prediction Markets → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Best Prediction Markets → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Best Prediction Markets → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Best Prediction Markets.
Active sub-markets
Market context
Ethereum's price on a specific calendar date—13 June 2026—remains difficult to forecast with precision, given the asset's historical volatility and the 18-month timeframe involved. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either pricing in extreme uncertainty or treating the contract as too illiquid to generate meaningful odds. Cross-platform comparison reveals a stark divergence: whilst traditional crypto derivatives markets (perpetual futures on major exchanges) trade Ethereum with substantial open interest, prediction markets have assigned negligible probability to this settlement event, indicating either a structural mismatch in how traders price point-in-time outcomes or genuine scepticism about the contract's resolvability.
Historical precedent shows that Ethereum's price has ranged from roughly $800 to $4,800 across major bull and bear cycles since 2020. A single-day price target 18 months hence requires accounting for macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and network upgrades—none of which are currently scheduled for June 2026. Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade (completed April 2023) and anticipated future scaling improvements create baseline technical optionality, but no catalyst specifically tied to that date exists in public roadmaps.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, and any announced Ethereum protocol changes. Recent volatility in spot and derivatives markets has been driven by US regulatory clarity and institutional adoption trends rather than calendar-specific events. The settlement window's closure on 14 June 2026 leaves minimal margin for price discovery after the target date itself.
Methodology
This page reviews What price will Ethereum hit on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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