2nd largest company end of May?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

At the end of May, the market will settle on which company is the world’s second-largest by market capitalisation at the close. The current contract pricing of 0% YES sits at odds with the visible Polymarket tape, which shows Alphabet as the clear frontrunner for second place and Apple the only meaningful alternative. That gap matters: prediction-market screens can move quickly on headline flows, but the settlement itself depends on the ranked market-cap snapshot, not a narrative about which business is “winning” operationally.

Recent history suggests the ordering at the top of the market-cap table can be sticky over short windows unless there is a sharp move in the underlying shares. NVIDIA remains the dominant first-place name, with Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft clustered behind it in widely cited rankings. In comparable month-end markets, the leading contender has often stayed in front as the deadline approached, with only a sudden equity rally or sell-off changing the second-place holder. Per recent market summaries, Alphabet has been trading ahead of Apple on this question, while analyst-style round-ups still place both comfortably behind NVIDIA.

For traders, the key catalysts are the final two weeks of May, when any earnings revisions, guidance changes, or broad tech-sector moves can alter the ranking. Apple’s and Alphabet’s share prices will be more important than company-specific headlines alone, because the contract is sensitive to relative market value at the close on 31 May. Watch for end-of-month rebalancing effects, any late-session volatility in the megacap tech complex, and fresh market-cap tallies from credible financial reporting, as those are the inputs most likely to shift consensus before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.