How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Fed has not cut rates at all in 2026 so far, and the current contract price near an 86% YES implies traders still see at least one quarter-point cut before year-end as the base case. That is notably more optimistic than the most hawkish bank calls: J.P. Morgan says it expects the Fed to stay on hold through the rest of 2026, while Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have also leaned towards no cuts or only late easing, and Goldman Sachs has been on the other side with a two-cut path in 2026.[1][11][18][2]

Historically, this kind of market tends to swing with each fresh inflation and labour print, because the Fed’s own 2026 projections have been unusually split. CNBC reported in June that the median FOMC view pointed to a 2026 year-end policy rate of 3.8%, signalling at least one hike was possible, even as market pricing still leaned towards easier policy; earlier coverage also noted the dot plot showing just one cut, versus traders pricing two to three cuts.[12][3] That gap matters for this contract because it is counting every 25bp move individually, so a single 50bp cut would resolve as two cuts, while any move from a cut to a hike narrative would quickly compress the implied probability.[3]

The main catalysts now are the remaining FOMC meetings, especially the next scheduled decision and the December meeting, plus any unscheduled emergency move, which would also count under the rules. Traders will also watch the CPI, PCE and payrolls sequence between meetings, since recent reporting has tied the shifting rate path to oil-driven inflation risks and a still-resilient labour market.[17][5][11] On prediction markets, the disagreement is wider than the 86% contract price suggests: Reuters cited LSEG data showing a near 69% probability of no change by end-2026, while Kalshi traders were reported as pricing meaningful odds of zero cuts, which is materially below the implied certainty here.[11][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.