MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MicroStrategy has not been publicly reported to have sold any Bitcoin, and the latest disclosed holdings remain around 818,334 to 818,869 BTC in May 2026, depending on the reporting cut-off. That leaves the market’s 0% implied yes probability far below the firm’s scale of accumulation and its public messaging, which has consistently framed Bitcoin as a treasury reserve rather than a trading book. The nearest comparable cases are not actual sales, but periods when the company slowed or paused purchases: those episodes have tended to reflect funding timing, not a change in reserve policy. Against that backdrop, the current contract is pricing an extreme outcome that would require a clear policy reversal.

The main catalysts are corporate financing conditions and any change in the company’s preferred-share or debt funding cadence, because those instruments have been used to add to Bitcoin without selling common operations. Recent reporting from Investing.com and Bitbo showed holdings still intact into May, while Strategy’s own purchases page remained the key primary source for updates. Traders should watch for any explicit statement from Strategy, quarterly filings, and on-chain movement from known company wallets that could indicate a disposal rather than routine treasury reshuffling. A sale would likely need to be justified by liquidity stress, covenant pressure, or a strategic pivot, none of which has been signalled so far.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.