Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning, being removed, or otherwise ceasing as President before 31 December 2026. This low figure reflects the structural difficulty of permanent removal in the current political landscape, where Republican control of the Senate acts as a formidable barrier to conviction following any House impeachment.

Historical precedent shows that while impeachment is possible, removal remains rare without bipartisan Senate support. During Trump’s first term, he was impeached twice but never convicted, as Senate Republicans maintained loyalty. Similarly, the 25th Amendment requires VP and Cabinet consensus, which is unlikely given current alignments. Kalshi’s broader market estimates impeachment and removal at nearly 28.7% for the second term, yet this includes temporary scenarios; permanent removal remains far less probable, aligning with the 9% prediction-market figure.

Traders should monitor impeachment inquiry announcements, Senate vote schedules, and any shifts in Republican leadership stance. Recent reports confirm Democrats in the House have initiated an impeachment inquiry, though conviction remains improbable without Senate defections [2]. Key dependencies include VP and Cabinet willingness to invoke the 25th Amendment, which currently appears unsupported. Any sudden resignation announcement would immediately resolve the market to “Yes,” regardless of when it takes effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.