Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D

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Active sub-markets

Market context

CHAOS and WRAITH PCIFIC are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Counter-Strike decider match in the United21 Group D on 6 June at 6:30AM ET. The fixture determines advancement or elimination within the tournament's group stage structure. The crowd-implied probability currently sits at 100% for a decisive result, suggesting near-certainty that the match will be played and completed within the settlement window.

The 100% probability reading is unusual for esports matches, which typically carry 2–5% tail risk for cancellations, technical forfeitures, or scheduling delays. Historical precedent from regional Counter-Strike tournaments shows that group-stage deciders rarely fail to complete, particularly when scheduled as final matches within a defined window. However, the absolute certainty priced here leaves no room for unforeseen circumstances—visa issues, player illness, or technical infrastructure failures have occasionally forced rescheduling beyond the seven-day grace period in comparable events. Traders should note that this probability reflects either exceptional confidence in the tournament's operational reliability or potential mispricing of low-probability disruption scenarios.

The key catalyst is confirmation of both teams' roster availability and the tournament's technical readiness in the 48 hours before the match. Any announcement of player absences, venue problems, or scheduling conflicts would immediately shift the market. Sportsbook lines on the match outcome itself (if available through regional operators) should be monitored for divergence from prediction-market consensus on which team wins, as the current 100% settlement probability masks underlying uncertainty about the victor. Tournament officials typically issue final fixture confirmations 24–36 hours before group-stage deciders.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.