Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-3.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-3.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-3.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-6.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-6.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe UN (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Upper Bracket quarterfinal 2 of the United21 Season 52 Playoffs pits FaZe Up Next against Alpha Dominion Nation in a Best-of-3 Counter-Strike 2 series, scheduled for 6:30 AM ET on 13 July. FaZe Up Next entered the playoffs after a dominant Group Stage run, including a 2–0 sweep of Vasteras, while Alpha Dominion Nation fought through a Group C decider against Vitality Academy to secure their spot.
Historical data from United21 academies suggests that teams entering with a 1–0 Group Stage record and a clean sweep in their preceding qualifier often carry a significant momentum advantage, yet the 0% crowd-implied probability for FaZe Up Next represents an extreme outlier. In comparable lower-bracket academy clashes, such a total market consensus against one side typically signals either a confirmed roster absence or a severe mismatch in recent form, rather than a genuine statistical certainty, as no major sportsbooks currently offer a line matching this zero-probability stance.
Traders should monitor official team announcements on X for any roster changes or match postponements before the settlement window closes, as a cancellation triggers a 50–50 resolution. Recent coverage confirms Alpha Dominion Nation’s path through the Group C decider, but no news has yet surfaced regarding FaZe Up Next’s readiness for the 6:30 AM ET start, making pre-match social media updates the primary catalyst for any probability divergence between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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