Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike 2 Semifinal 1 match between Inner Circle Esports and Sharks, scheduled for 8:00 AM ET on 27 June 2026 as a Best of 3 series in the Super DraculaN Playoffs. This fixture determines which team advances, with the market resolving to Inner Circle if they win, to Sharks if they win, and to a 50-50 split if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days.

Historical precedents in this tournament show that crowd-implied probabilities often diverge sharply from sportsbook lines when map veto strategies alter perceived fairness. In the recent Lower Bracket clash, Sharks defeated Inner Circle 2-0 on Mirage and Nuke, yet Thunderbook odds still favoured Inner Circle at 1.78 versus Sharks at 1.92, suggesting bookmakers underestimated Sharks’ Nuke ban capability [2]. Strafe users overwhelmingly back Sharks with 86.3% of votes, while Kalshi markets assign Sharks a 54% chance, contrasting with the 0% YES probability on this contract, indicating a significant pricing inefficiency between prediction markets and analyst consensus [1][4].

Traders should monitor the official map veto announcement, as Inner Circle’s ability to ban Nuke could neutralise Sharks’ strongest map and shift series momentum [2]. Additionally, watch for any schedule adjustments or delay notices from HLTV, as the market expires on 11 July if no winner is declared within seven days [4]. Recent coverage confirms the match is live on 27 June at 1:40 PM local time, with Sharks advancing from the Lower Bracket after their 2-0 victory [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.