Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
WW Team’s meeting with TDK in the CIS LAN Championship playoffs is scheduled as a best-of-three semifinal, and the market is pricing a **WW Team** win at 100% YES despite the broader public indicators pointing the other way. Strafe’s match page shows all listed votes on **TDK** rather than WW Team, while the sportsbook-style listing on cybersport.ru puts WW Team at around 1.65 against TDK at roughly 2.15, implying a narrower home-market edge than the prediction contract suggests.[1][3] That gap matters because a 100% crowd price on a BO3 often reflects liquidity bias or a thin order book more than a settled competitive consensus.
Recent comparable results frame the match as closer than the market’s certainty implies. WW Team beat TDK 2-0 in a March BO3 on the same matchup page history, which is the cleanest head-to-head reference available, but TDK have also been active in the same event and the tournament record shows both teams moving through CIS LAN playoffs rather than one side dominating the bracket.[7][8][12] In other words, the market’s perfect YES price is not strongly corroborated by the cross-platform picture: the exchange crowd is at certainty, but external odds and recent head-to-head evidence do not point to a genuinely risk-free outcome.
The main catalysts to watch are administrative rather than strategic: confirmation that the semifinal is played at the scheduled slot, whether any stream or bracket adjustment changes the order of play, and any late forfeit or disqualification risk, because the contract resolves to 50-50 if the match is not completed under the stated rules. Liquipedia’s tournament page and the live schedule trackers show the fixture as part of CIS LAN Championship #6, but there is also a slight timing mismatch across listings, with one page placing the match at 09:00 UTC and another at 13:00–15:00 UTC local time, which is worth monitoring for delay risk rather than competitive price discovery.[10][13][16]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: WW Team vs TDK (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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