Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 74% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Enjoy (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Enjoy meet Yakult Brothers in a Games of the Future Group C elimination best-of-three, with the market still pricing a **0% YES** outcome despite the series being live-scheduled and listed by several esports trackers for 1 August. That disconnect matters: the prediction market is effectively saying Enjoy’s win case is remote, while bookmaker-style listings and community-facing odds are not all aligned on a clean sweep for either side. Sofascore and Strafe both place the match on 1 August at 11:00 UTC, and Strafe’s crowd vote is unanimous for Yakult Brothers, which is the clearest public consensus signal available from the search results.[1][3]
Historically, the read-through on a zero-priced side in Dota 2 is that it usually reflects either a strong roster gap or a result already being assumed by the market after an opening loss in a double-elimination group format. Here, that framing fits the bracket context: Games of the Future Group C elimination matches sit alongside winners’ fixtures on the same day, and coverage from Deadspin noted GLYPH beat Enjoy 2-0 while Zero Tenacity downed Yakult Brothers 2-0 in the opening round, leaving both teams in the lower-bracket path.[15][16] That makes the contract’s 0% YES less about a binary certainty and more about how harshly traders are discounting Enjoy’s path after that early setback.
The main catalysts are scheduling and confirmation rather than form alone. The market only resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, ends tied, or drifts more than seven days beyond the scheduled date, so any delay notice would matter immediately.[1] Because the event window closes on 1 August at 17:30 UTC, traders should watch for official start-time changes, bracket updates from the organiser, and whether the series begins on schedule at the listed 11:00 UTC slot; if it is played as planned, the market should resolve on the completed BO3 result rather than on uncertainty around venue timing.[1][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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