Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ’s upper-bracket meeting with Yellow Submarine in the Europe closed qualifier is priced as a fairly even contest, with the market at 40% for a MOUZ win. That sits in line with the broader picture from matchup history: Yellow Submarine has taken the most recent recorded head-to-head series, edging MOUZ 2-1 on 3 May 2026, while earlier meetings in 2025 and 2024 also produced close Bo3s rather than one-sided results.[1][2][5][6]

For traders, the main catalyst is simple match completion rather than a long list of team-news angles. The scheduled start is listed for 08:00 GMT, and the market rules mean any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner pushes settlement to 50-50, so official tournament scheduling updates matter as much as draft quality.[1] If the series begins but cannot be finished, settlement will depend on whether a winner is eventually recorded, which makes venue, server, and bracket timing announcements the key items to watch rather than roster churn alone.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.