Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Game 3 Winner | 55% |
| Game 4 Winner | 55% |
| Game 2 Winner | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 54% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 38% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 23% |
| Game 1 Winner | 22% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) | 16% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 75% probability to lol: bilibili gaming vs hanwha life esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Bilibili Gaming and Hanwha Life Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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