LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

CTBC Flying Oyster and GAM Esports meet in a best-of-three LCP group-stage match, and the market’s 37% yes price implies CTBC Flying Oyster are the underdog against GAM Esports. That sits a little below a simple 50-50 read, but it is not far from the shape of recent head-to-heads: the teams have traded results over the last year, with GAM taking a 2-0 win in January 2026, while CTBC Flying Oyster beat GAM in earlier 2025 meetings and also won their most recent 2025 clash in a close 2-1 series.[1][5][9][11]

That mixed record is the key historical frame for the current probability. Public match records show both sides have been capable of winning the series outright, and recent LCP results suggest neither team arrives in obviously poor form: on 26 July, CTBC Flying Oyster beat Deep Cross Gaming 2-0, while GAM Esports also posted a 2-0 win over DetonatioN FocusMe the same day.[14][16] For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation that the match starts on schedule, any late lineup or substitution news, and whether either team shows unusual draft or side-selection edges once the draft phase is published; because the contract resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, is tied, or is delayed beyond seven days, schedule risk matters almost as much as pre-match win rate.[Market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.