Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 91% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
DN SOOPers Challengers face Nongshim Esports Academy in a best-of-three fixture within the LCK Challengers League's Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group bracket, scheduled for 18 August 2026 at 04:00 ET. The match determines positioning within South Korea's secondary professional League of Legends circuit, where academy rosters and challenger organisations compete for promotion pathways and circuit points.
The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled rather than confidence in either team's victory. Historical precedent in LCK Challengers League fixtures shows cancellations remain rare; most postponements occur due to player illness or technical infrastructure failures rather than organisational withdrawal. The 50-50 resolution clause for cancellations or ties carries minimal weight given the format's standard best-of-three structure, which structurally precludes draws. Comparable academy-level League of Legends tournaments across regional circuits demonstrate fixture completion rates exceeding 95% when scheduled within standard seasonal windows.
Traders monitoring this contract should track official LCK Challengers League announcements regarding roster availability, particularly any last-minute substitutions or health protocols affecting either organisation. Nongshim's broader esports operations and DN SOOPers' recent competitive performance in earlier rounds provide context for match-day conditions, though such information typically surfaces within 48 hours of fixture time. The settlement window closing at 14:00 UTC on 18 August creates a tight margin for post-match resolution; any technical delays in official result confirmation could affect settlement timing rather than outcome probability.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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