Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 69% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 69% |
| Match Winner | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 58% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 39% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 38% |
| Game Handicap: MYTH (-1.5) vs Dynasty (+1.5) | 30% |
| Game 1 Winner | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Myth Esports meet Dynasty in a best-of-three Road Of Legends regular-season match, and the main market is pricing Myth as the outsider at 39% implied probability. That is noticeably below the crowd view on Bitget, where Myth is trading around 68% versus 33% for Dynasty, while Strafe’s community pick is unanimous for Myth and Bo3’s match page presents the contest as a routine scoreline prediction rather than a close-call fixture[1][2][3].
For context, markets on small regional League of Legends series can move sharply when one platform has fresher lineup information or a more engaged voter base than another. Here, the divergence is the point: the prediction market implies a much tighter match than the broad community sentiment shown on Strafe and Bitget, which suggests traders are either discounting roster certainty, map-level volatility in a BO3, or the possibility that public votes are overconfident[1][3]. In comparable lower-tier esports spots, late team confirmations and substitution news often matter more than historical brand names because the sample size is thin and line-ups can change late.
What traders should watch is whether either team posts a formal roster, forfeit, or scheduling update before the scheduled start, since the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, ends tied, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner. The contract also has a special edge case if the series starts but is unfinished and a team is awarded the win on forfeit, so any pre-match announcement from the organiser or a change on the match page can be material. The current disparity between the 39% market price and the stronger cross-platform support for Myth means even a small operational update could be enough to re-rate the contract quickly[1][3].
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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