Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 72% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 61% |
| Match Winner | 57% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 56% |
| Game 3 Winner | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Game 4 Winner | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 46% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 34% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 21% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 21% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 21% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 21% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) | 16% |
Market context
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 56% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-10T14:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK… on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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