Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 4 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 3? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: team liquid vs lyon (bo5) - lcs playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Team Liquid and LYON in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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