Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) | 44% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 26% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: DRG (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
All Gamers meet Dragon Ranger Gaming in a best-of-three VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega match, with the contract currently pricing All Gamers at 59% to win. That sits in line with a modest favourite rather than a strong favourite, and it implies the market is expecting a competitive series rather than a clear mismatch. The relevant resolution is straightforward: the market settles on the match winner if completed, but reverts to 50-50 if the fixture is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the allowed window.
For context, Stage 2 is being shown across multiple platforms for both international and domestic Chinese viewers, which matters because broadcast and scheduling updates are usually the first signal that a series is moving as planned.[1] In comparable VALORANT group-stage markets, probabilities in the high-50s typically reflect a blend of roster strength, recent form and map veto expectations rather than a decisive edge, so the current price should be read as a narrow lean rather than a consensus certainty. The main cross-platform question is whether sportsbook lines, if available, sit tighter or looser than the 59% implied here; any gap would usually come from different assumptions about map pool depth, patch adaptation or late team news.
Traders should watch for official match-start confirmation, any change to the published schedule, and whether either side has an altered roster or technical issue before pick-ban begins. Because the settlement clock runs from the scheduled date, a delay of more than seven days without a winner would force the market to the 50-50 fallback rather than a normal side result. A late push in the schedule, a format change, or a withdrawal would therefore matter more here than a small shift in sentiment alone.[1]
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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