Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
JD Gaming and TYLOO are scheduled to contest the upper bracket semifinal of the Valorant Champions Tour China Stage 2 Playoffs on 19 August 2026, with the winner advancing directly to the grand final. The best-of-three match begins at 04:00 ET, making it an early-morning fixture for Western viewers but a standard afternoon slot in China's timezone.
The 100% implied probability across prediction markets reflects JD Gaming's established dominance within the Chinese Valorant ecosystem. JD Gaming have consistently ranked amongst the region's top teams throughout 2026, whilst TYLOO, though competitive, have historically struggled to overcome JD Gaming in direct matchups. Previous encounters between these squads have typically favoured JD Gaming, establishing a clear skill differential that the market has priced in completely. This absence of uncertainty is notable given that upper bracket semifinals routinely produce upsets in esports; however, the magnitude of JD Gaming's regional advantage appears sufficient to suppress meaningful doubt.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and practice scrim results in the 48 hours preceding the match, as last-minute personnel changes or injury reports could shift the narrative. VCT China's official schedule and any technical delays affecting earlier matches on the same day warrant attention, since fixture congestion occasionally forces rescheduling that could alter team preparation. Recent statements from either organisation regarding strategic adjustments or meta-read changes would provide early signals of confidence levels. The settlement window closes at 14:10 ET on 19 August, allowing approximately ten hours post-match for official result confirmation before resolution.
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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