Ethereum price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks to pinpoint Ethereum's ETH/USDT closing price at noon ET on 25 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data as the sole settlement source. With a settlement window extending nearly two years forward, the 0% implied probability reflects the inherent difficulty in pricing such distant spot-price outcomes rather than any consensus bearishness on Ethereum itself. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal liquidity in comparable long-dated Ethereum price brackets on rival prediction markets, suggesting this contract's zero probability may partly reflect sparse trading activity rather than genuine market conviction.

Historical precedent from multi-year Ethereum price markets demonstrates that crowd forecasts become increasingly dispersed as settlement dates recede beyond twelve months. During 2021–2022, similar two-year-out price brackets attracted sporadic participation, with winning brackets often determined by volatility spikes rather than directional consensus. The current flatness here aligns with that pattern: traders typically avoid committing capital to such distant spot prices when shorter-dated contracts offer clearer information edges.

Catalysts shaping Ethereum's trajectory through May 2026 remain diffuse. Regulatory developments—particularly any major shift in US or EU stablecoin or smart-contract oversight—could materially affect adoption and price discovery. Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade (completed in April 2023) and subsequent network improvements continue influencing staking participation and validator economics. Traders monitoring this contract should track quarterly Ethereum development roadmap announcements and macroeconomic monetary-policy shifts, both of which historically correlate with multi-year crypto asset repricing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.