Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory over the next quarter hinges on three consecutive FOMC decisions spanning March through June 2026. Markets are currently pricing zero probability of a rate cut across this window, implying confidence that the Fed will either hold rates steady or raise them further. The upper bound of the target federal funds rate serves as the settlement metric, meaning any downward adjustment to this ceiling—however modest—would resolve the market affirmatively.

Historical precedent suggests that three-meeting windows without cuts are commonplace during tightening or neutral cycles. Between 2015 and 2018, the Fed held rates constant for extended stretches despite market speculation about imminent cuts. The 0% crowd probability here reflects broader consensus that inflation remains sticky enough to preclude easing in the near term. However, prediction markets have historically underpriced tail-risk scenarios where economic data deteriorates sharply; the current odds leave minimal room for a surprise pivot.

Traders monitoring this contract should track monthly inflation releases (CPI and PCE), employment reports, and Fed communications ahead of each meeting. The March meeting will be particularly revealing given its proximity to Q1 earnings season and any revised economic forecasts. Recent Fed speakers have emphasised data dependency, meaning a meaningful slowdown in wage growth or core inflation could shift expectations. Futures markets and Fed funds probability trackers from CME FedWatch will provide real-time calibration against the 0% implied here, offering early signals if consensus begins shifting toward cut scenarios.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.