Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026, the United States and Türkiye will meet in a FIFA World Cup Group D fixture at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with the match concluding at 10:00 PM ET. This is the first World Cup encounter between the two nations, though they have faced each four times since 1991, with the USA holding a 2W-1L-1D record and winning the last two matches[2]. The prediction market for an exact 2-1 US victory currently implies a 5% probability, a figure that diverges meaningfully from sportsbook lines where the USA is favoured at +150 for a win and the draw sits at +245, while analysts on cross-platform odds-comparison sites often cite a 2-1 US outcome as the most plausible scoreline given the USA’s +5 goal differential in the group stage[1][4].

Historically, matches between these sides have been tight, with the USA’s last loss occurring in 2003 at the now-disbanded FIFA Confederations Cup, and their first meeting in 1991 ending 1-1[2]. The 5% implied probability for a 2-1 US score aligns with the USA’s consistent performance in past tournaments but underestimates their current momentum, as they have won both group matches without conceding a goal, while Türkiye sits at 0 points with a -3 goal differential[1]. Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late injury updates, particularly for key USMNT players like Brenden Aaronson, whose availability could shift the scoreline dynamics, as noted in recent U.S. Soccer coverage[2]. The match is scheduled to conclude before the settlement window ends at 02:00:00Z on 26 June, with no extra time or penalty shoot-outs included in the resolution[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.