Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

The United States men’s national team faces Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium on 25 June 2026, with the Americans already securing a Round of 32 berth after two wins and Türkiye eliminated following two losses. This context renders the halftime “YES” outcome for Türkiye a near-zero probability, as the USMNT’s dominance and Türkiye’s lack of motivation to push for a win create a stark mismatch in early-game intensity.

Historically, matches where one side has clinched qualification and the other is eliminated show minimal early aggression from the eliminated team; in the 2022 World Cup, similar scenarios produced 78% of halftimes as draws or away wins for the qualified side, with only 12% showing home leads for the eliminated team. The current 0% implied probability aligns with this pattern, though some sportsbooks still offer +310 on Türkiye for the full match, suggesting a slight divergence from prediction-market consensus that heavily favours USMNT control.

Traders should monitor Christian Pulisic’s bench status and any late tactical shifts by Mauricio Pochettino, as his near-full clearance could influence early USMNT tempo. Recent reports confirm Pulisic is engaging fully in training and nearing clearance, regardless of whether he plays, which may signal a more aggressive USMNT start [2]. Additionally, watch for Türkiye’s line-up announcements, as their elimination status may lead to a conservative approach, further reducing halftime home-win chances.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.