Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private-market valuation must reach the listed threshold by 31 December 2026, as measured by Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, to resolve the contract as “Yes”. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 12% YES, while cross-platform data shows near-identical 10% lines on Best Prediction Markets and Polymarket, with no meaningful divergence from sportsbook-style odds where available[6].

Historical precedent for secondary-market surges in late-stage AI firms suggests 12% is conservative: Anthropic’s NPM valuation jumped from $650bn in early May to $992bn by late May 2026, then to $1.14tn in July, an 18% monthly gain that already eclipsed its Series H-1 round of $965bn[2][8][9]. Prediction markets now price even odds at $1.9tn—65% above today’s $1.14tn—and a $2.0tn mark at 43%, implying the current 12% line may understate momentum[2].

Traders should monitor daily NPM prints (updated 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day) and any gated financing announcements, as headline rounds often lag secondary-market re-pricing[1][2]. The key dependency is whether Anthropic sustains its May–July surge trajectory; a recent Moonberg analysis notes the $2.0tn bet has risen four points in a month, signalling accelerating confidence in a late-2026 breakout[2]. No public equity exists, so resolution hinges entirely on NPM’s private-market data[1][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.