Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Lower Bracket final at The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a best-of-three match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. With the crowd-implied probability at exactly 50% YES, the market reflects a perfectly balanced contest, mirroring historical precedents from regional qualifiers where lower-bracket finals between unranked or semi-pro teams often resolve as coin-flips due to minimal head-to-head data and comparable recent form. Past TI qualifiers show that when teams lack significant tournament exposure, odds diverge sharply between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks, which frequently assign wider margins or default to conservative lines, whereas analyst consensus on such contracts tends to lag, waiting for live performance cues before adjusting views.

Traders should monitor the official match result confirmation and any post-match bracket updates, as the settlement window closes on 27 June at 02:00 UTC, leaving little room for delayed resolutions. Recent coverage from GosuGamers confirms the match was scheduled and live scoring was active, but no final winner has been publicly declared in the immediate timeframe, creating a dependency on official tournament feeds for resolution. Any announcement of cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would trigger the 50-50 settlement clause, a critical risk factor given the tight timeline. With the match occurring online and teams operating with limited public infrastructure, real-time score updates from platforms like Hawk.live or Sofascore will serve as the primary catalysts for traders assessing the likelihood of a decisive outcome before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.