England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 9% implied probability, suggesting traders view a specific scoreline as unlikely relative to the broader distribution of possible results. Settlement captures only the 90-minute regulation result plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group fixtures typically cluster around outcomes in the 1–1 to 2–1 range, which collectively account for roughly 35–40% of all group-stage matches. England and Croatia last met competitively in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which finished 2–1 to England after extra time; their qualifying record shows moderate scoring variance, with group matches often settling between 1–0 and 2–1. The current 9% reading implies the market is pricing this contract as a tail outcome, consistent with sportsbook odds that typically reserve 15–20% cumulative probability for any single exact scoreline in competitive fixtures.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, particularly England's attacking depth and Croatia's defensive availability. Recent tournament patterns—including Euro 2024 group-stage results—show that opening fixtures with established sides tend toward lower-scoring outcomes when neither team has tournament momentum. Fixture scheduling, weather conditions at the venue, and any late tactical shifts disclosed in pre-match press conferences will influence scoring expectations. Cross-platform comparison with major sportsbooks and betting exchanges should reveal whether the 9% reading reflects genuine consensus or represents mispricing relative to conventional odds.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.