Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Haiti will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The prediction market currently prices a Scotland victory at 64%, reflecting moderate confidence in the European side despite Haiti's status as World Cup newcomers. This represents a meaningful gap versus conventional sportsbook lines, where Scotland typically trades at 70–75% implied probability, suggesting the prediction market is pricing in greater uncertainty or valuing Haiti's upside more generously than traditional bookmakers.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison; Haiti last qualified for the World Cup in 1974, whilst Scotland's most recent appearance was 2018. In group-stage matchups between established European nations and Caribbean sides, the European team has won roughly 75–80% of encounters, though sample sizes remain small. Scotland's recent form has been inconsistent—they finished second in their Euro 2024 qualifying group and exited the tournament in the group stage—which may explain why prediction-market participants are not fully aligning with sportsbook confidence levels.

Key variables for traders include squad announcements and injury updates in the months preceding June 2026, particularly regarding Scotland's attacking depth and Haiti's goalkeeper situation. Fixture congestion in the domestic leagues immediately before the tournament could disproportionately affect either side's preparation. Recent reporting from FIFA on World Cup scheduling and group compositions has confirmed the pairing; any late changes to squad eligibility or tournament format remain unlikely but would reset probability assessments substantially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.