Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score

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Market context

Morocco and Haiti will face off in a decisive FIFA World Cup Group C match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Wednesday, 24 June 2026, with kick-off set for 6:00 PM ET. The contest determines final group standings, as Morocco holds four points from one win and one draw, while Haiti sits at zero with two losses. This specific prediction market, offering a 5% implied probability for a particular exact score, resolves solely on the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup knockout or final group games rarely exceed 5–8% implied probability unless the outcome is heavily skewed by form or defensive records. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2018 show that when a team like Morocco, with a +1 goal differential and strong defensive discipline, faces a struggling side like Haiti (–4 goal differential), the most likely scores cluster around 1–0, 2–0, or 2–1. The current 5% line suggests the market is pricing a less common outcome, such as a 3–0 or 0–0, which aligns with the divergence seen between sportsbook totals (o3.5 at +145) and prediction-market specificity.

Traders should monitor Morocco’s final training session and Haiti’s lineup announcements before kick-off, as fatigue or tactical shifts could alter scoring dynamics. Recent reports confirm Haiti is training ahead of the match, but no major injury updates have been released yet [7]. The key catalyst remains whether Morocco, having already secured Round of 32 passage, maintains intensity or adopts a conservative approach. With the settlement window ending 22:00 UTC on 24 June, any postponement would extend the market’s open period, but cancellation without a make-up game would void the contract.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.