Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas officially agreeing to disarm in Gaza remains a very low-probability outcome because the group’s public line has been consistent: it has tied any weapons handover to a full Israeli withdrawal, tighter guarantees, and, in some reports, broader political conditions such as a pathway to Palestinian statehood.[1][2][12] Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without assurances of a full Israeli withdrawal, while BBC and other outlets later described the movement as rejecting phased plans that would require it to give up weapons before those preconditions are met.[1][2][3]

That backdrop helps explain why the crowd-implied 0% YES looks closer to the market consensus than an outlier, even if some desks have occasionally priced in a small negotiation premium around ceasefire talks. Comparable cases also point the same way: previous proposals have described staged disarmament, starting with heavy weapons, but Hamas has repeatedly rejected unconditional surrender of arms and framed weapons as leverage until a final settlement exists.[4][6][13] For traders, the key catalyst is any formal statement from Hamas’s acknowledged leadership, not intermediary leaks or analyst commentary, because the market settles only on an official announcement meeting the contract’s wording.

Watch for shifts in the ceasefire framework, especially any Israeli withdrawal timetable, humanitarian-access package, or international governing mechanism, because those are the conditions Hamas has linked to any movement on weapons.[2][4][11] Recent reporting also shows the issue remains live in mediated talks: The National said Hamas has floated willingness to surrender heavy weapons under a Trump-linked plan while still wanting to retain lighter arms, a position Israel has already rejected.[4] Until there is a public, unequivocal Hamas statement accepting disarmament in Gaza, prediction-market and analyst pricing should stay anchored near zero, with little reason for sportsbooks to move materially absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.[1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.