US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any portion of the agreement's text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026—a thirteen-day window from the signing date. The 90% implied probability reflects strong market confidence that disclosure will occur within this timeframe, suggesting traders view public release as highly probable given the formal announcement and ceremonial signing.

Historical precedent supports this assessment. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 saw its full text released within days of the agreement's conclusion, with summaries and key provisions circulating immediately through official channels and media outlets. Similarly, the Iran nuclear deal's implementing documents became available to Congress and the public within weeks. Diplomatic agreements of this magnitude typically undergo rapid public disclosure to satisfy legislative oversight requirements, media scrutiny, and domestic political accountability. The thirteen-day settlement window aligns with standard practice for major bilateral agreements between major powers.

Key catalysts include the 19 June signing ceremony itself, which typically prompts immediate official text releases, and any Congressional notification requirements that would necessitate disclosure. Traders should monitor statements from the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry for announcements regarding public availability. The settlement hinges on "widely available" disclosure rather than restricted circulation, meaning publication by mainstream news outlets, government websites, or official repositories would satisfy resolution criteria. Any delays in formal release or restrictions on distribution could shift outcomes, though the current probability suggests markets assess such scenarios as unlikely given the agreement's high-profile nature.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.