Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 9 June 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the peak temperature recorded across all daylight hours at the airport's official weather station.

June temperatures in New York typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical data showing that extreme heat above 90°F occurs in roughly 15–20% of June days across the city's five-decade record. The 0% crowd probability currently implied suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast. Comparable temperature markets on prediction platforms show meaningful divergence: sportsbooks rarely price weather outcomes, whilst meteorological consensus from the National Weather Service typically narrows confidence intervals only within five to seven days of the target date. Early-season June weather in the Northeast remains volatile enough that probability assignments this far ahead carry substantial uncertainty.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's trajectory will be seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly the Atlantic hurricane season outlook and any anomalous high-pressure systems tracking toward the Northeast. Real-time conditions in the week preceding 9 June will sharpen probability estimates considerably. Traders should monitor National Weather Service extended forecasts and historical analogue years—particularly 2012 and 2019, when early June heat waves pushed temperatures above 90°F—to recalibrate positions as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.