0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day between late June and July 2026 would signal a complete halt to the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, yet current data shows the opposite: 25 ships crossed on 25 June, the highest daily volume since April, following a US–Iran agreement guaranteeing immediate reopening of commercial navigation[1]. Historical precedent from the conflict period shows the strait was briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, with transit counts dropping to near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels daily[6]. However, since the memorandum of understanding finalized on 17 June, traffic has rebounded steadily, making a zero-day event statistically improbable and aligning with the 0% crowd-implied probability on the prediction market.

Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline by which the US must fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports under the MOU, as failure to comply could trigger renewed Iranian restrictions on shipping[1]. Key catalysts include weekly IMF PortWatch daily transit reports, any escalation in US–Iran naval tensions, and insurance premium spikes for vessels entering the Gulf, which have already surged during past closures[6]. A recent CNN report confirms that 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on Thursday, 25 June, marking the highest volume since April and reinforcing the expectation that daily transit counts will remain positive through the settlement window[1].

The divergence between the 0% prediction-market probability and sportsbook lines on related geopolitical risk contracts is minimal, as both reflect analyst consensus that a total shutdown is unlikely under the current peace framework. Unlike markets betting on conflict escalation, this contract hinges on a specific data point—IMF PortWatch publishing zero arrivals—which has not occurred since the strait’s brief April closure and is inconsistent with post-MOU traffic trends[1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.