Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transit, with roughly one-third of all seaborne petroleum passing through its 21-nautical-mile width daily. The market seeks to forecast the seven-day moving average of vessel arrivals recorded by IMF Portwatch as of 31 May 2026, with the 21% crowd probability suggesting traders expect transit volumes to fall below historical norms during that period.

Historical transit data shows the strait typically handles 1,800–2,200 ship transits monthly, though this figure has proven volatile. During the 2022 Houthi escalation and subsequent Red Sea disruptions, transit calls declined sharply as vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to journeys. The 2019–2020 period saw similar compression following the Tanker War and initial sanctions pressure. Current baseline expectations appear anchored to recent 2024–2025 patterns, where monthly averages stabilised around 1,900–2,050 transits despite ongoing regional tensions. The 21% probability implies traders are pricing in a material disruption scenario rather than continuation of recent equilibrium.

Catalysts through May 2026 include Iranian nuclear negotiations status, potential new sanctions regimes, and any escalation involving Houthi or other non-state actors. The International Maritime Organization's security advisories and shipping insurance premium movements will signal market sentiment shifts. Geopolitical announcements regarding US policy toward Iran, particularly post-election positioning, could trigger rapid repricing. Traders should monitor Lloyd's List and tanker-tracking services for real-time transit anomalies, as IMF Portwatch data lags actual conditions by several days.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.