Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran is poised to begin collecting mandatory maritime service fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a move framed as covering navigational support and insurance rather than traditional tolls. This policy, which Iran insists applies generally to commercial ships, has sparked a sharp divergence between the current crowd-implied probability of just 2% on prediction markets and the more assertive stance taken by analysts and recent diplomatic reports. While US officials have publicly insisted the strait must remain permanently toll-free, Iranian foreign ministry spokespeople have confirmed the new fees are obligatory, creating a clear gap between official American rhetoric and Tehran’s operational reality.

Historically, similar attempts to levy passage charges in critical waterways, such as the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, have relied on voluntary contributions for safety services, yet Iran and its ally Oman are pushing for obligatory payments. The 2% market probability appears to underestimate the momentum behind this policy, especially given that Iran has already instituted a rigorous vetting and fee system for foreign-flagged vessels since mid-March, effectively operating a "tollbooth" regime despite the ongoing 60-day peace negotiation waiver. Traders should watch for the expiry of this temporary waiver and any formal announcements from Tehran regarding the resumption of fees once the negotiation period concludes, as the IRGC’s existing infrastructure suggests the capability to enforce charges immediately. Recent reporting from the New York Times confirms that Oman has formally proposed a joint fee scheme to US allies, modelling it on Southeast Asian precedents but insisting the payments are mandatory, a detail that significantly raises the likelihood of the event occurring compared to the current market odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

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