Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to demand a public, official pledge from Tehran that it will cease attacks and guarantee open shipping lanes. The prediction market “Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?” reflects this tension, with crowd-implied odds at just 2% YES, suggesting traders doubt Iran will issue the required declarative commitment before the settlement deadline.

Historically, Iran’s Hormuz policy has been conditional and ambiguous. In June 2026, Oman reported that Iran “affirmed commitment to international law and toll-free safe passage” after talks with its foreign minister, yet days later Iran struck a vessel, pausing escort operations and threatening peace talks [2]. Past statements have distinguished between “non-hostile” ships and those linked to the US or Israel, allowing passage only for the former while charging fees for safe transit [3]. This pattern of partial assurances followed by escalation explains the market’s low probability: a full, unambiguous commitment not to attack any ship remains outside Iran’s established behaviour.

Traders should monitor the upcoming negotiations in Oman, led by US Vice President JD Vance, where the US insists Iran publicly state the strait is open and pledge no further shooting [4][9]. A qualifying announcement must be a clear, declarative policy statement from the Iranian government or an authorised representative, explicitly committing not to attack ships transiting the Strait [market description]. Recent US sanctions on Iranian banking figures and currency exchanges underscore Washington’s leverage, but Iran has shown it views navigation control as critical leverage it is “adamant” not to relinquish [1][4]. No such pledge has been issued as of Friday, and the settlement window closes Sunday at 11:59 PM ET.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.