Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question hinges on whether foreign naval vessels will navigate the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical oil chokepoint, through which roughly 21% of global petroleum trade passes—within the next eighteen months. The strait remains one of the most heavily monitored waterways; the US Navy maintains a persistent presence, and transits by non-regional powers are documented routinely by maritime tracking services and official statements.

Historical precedent suggests the 4% implied probability underweights baseline transit frequency. Between 2020 and 2024, multiple navies conducted Hormuz transits: the US Navy's Fifth Fleet operates continuously in the region, French and British vessels have passed through as part of freedom-of-navigation operations, and even German and Japanese warships have transited during regional deployments. The low crowd probability may reflect either genuine expectation of reduced activity or a misalignment with documented patterns of naval movement through the strait.

Key catalysts include escalation in Iran-US tensions, which could trigger either increased Western naval presence or Iranian attempts to restrict passage; any formal announcement of multinational task forces or freedom-of-navigation missions; and broader Middle East geopolitical shifts affecting naval deployment schedules. Recent reporting from the US Naval Institute and regional maritime authorities documents routine transits, suggesting the baseline case involves continued passage rather than cessation. Traders should monitor announcements from the US Central Command, UK Ministry of Defence, and French Navy regarding Gulf deployments, as these typically precede or accompany strait transits.

Methodology

This page reviews Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.